Zhongwei Bets on Tech, Inventory Surge for Growth
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In the realm of semiconductor development, the journey is nuanced, often marked by intense competition and relentless innovation. As the global landscape shifts, the importance of homegrown technologies has never been more apparent. Jiang Shangzhou, the former chairman of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), once stated, "We don't need to be proficient in everything; as long as we are ahead in a few areas abroad, we can carve our own development path.” This ethos rings particularly true for companies that have emerged in the domestic semiconductor sector, particularly amid the persistent drive for self-sufficiency.
Among these, the company Zhongwei has captured significant attention and respect. Founded not by traditional chip manufacturers but by visionary leaders, it stands out as a true pioneer in laser etching technologies, focusing on semiconductor etching equipment that places it in direct competition with global giants like Lam Research Corporation. Unlike peers who may adopt a sprawling product line strategy, Zhongwei has embraced a more strategic approach of "first achieving excellence in one area," honing in on etching technologies to establish a solid market foothold.
The world of semiconductor production is currently undergoing a transformative shift as the architecture of NAND memory devices has evolved from a two-dimensional design to three-dimensional structures. This progression has diminished the viability of merely reducing line widths as a method of increasing chip density, leading to new methods that prioritize increasing layer stack counts. Subsequently, this has elevated the importance of etching equipment, making it essential for creating intricate patterns at nanoscale precision. The demand for plasma etchers is on the rise, with their value forecasted to exceed 70% within the equipment industry, surpassing traditional lithography machines.
Numerous factors contribute to Zhongwei's standing as a leading player in the plasma etching sector. The first of these factors is market share. Traditionally, the etching equipment market has been dominated by a few major players, with Lam, Tokyo Electron, and Applied Materials comprising over 90% of the total market. However, Zhongwei has swiftly gained ground, increasing its share of the domestic market from approximately 25% in 2022 to an impressive 60% by 2023 for its CCP etchers. The growth is similarly noticeable in the ICP segment, where the market share surged from virtually nil to 75% by the end of 2023.
Fast-paced technological upgrades also play a pivotal role in the company’s ascendance. Zhongwei’s strides began in 2018 when it prepared for mass production of a 5nm plasma etching machine, achieving a breakthrough by qualifying the technology with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). Remarkably, Zhongwei was the only domestic etching equipment manufacturer to penetrate TSMC's production lines. Subsequently, the company announced the successful development of a 3nm etcher, which also made its entry into TSMC's production line in late 2024. The groundbreaking news continued into 2025 with announcements of a new etching machine capable of achieving a precision of 0.02 nanometers, while competitors were still refining their 5nm and 3nm technologies.
The velocity of these advancements is largely attributable to the leadership of Dr. Yin Zhitao, the founder of Zhongwei. With a resume that includes senior management roles at Lam and Applied Materials, Dr. Yin has overseen the development of numerous crucial etching technologies that now serve as a foundation for Zhongwei's innovation. His 40 years of experience grant the company an unparalleled technical base, fostering a culture of excellence and reiterating the significance of foundational expertise in driving innovation.
Another vital element contributing to Zhongwei's success is its relentless focus on research and development investments. Between 2019 and 2023, the company maintained a research expenditure rate around 13%. In the first three quarters of 2024, this rate soared to 16.6%, surpassing competitors such as North Huachuang and Huan Hsiang Technology. Such robust investment in R&D is crucial for the continued rapid iteration of technology, enabling Zhongwei to break through international monopolies and solidify its reputation in the semiconductor space. To date, the company has filed 2,648 patents, with 2,224 of these being core inventions, illustrating its commitment to technology advancement and intellectual property development.
However, as with any company, the rapid growth trajectory is not free from challenges. A notable concern arises in the form of inventory increases. As of the third quarter of 2024, Zhongwei reported a staggering 91% increase in inventory, culminating in a total of 7.8 billion, a significant jump from just 1.2 billion in 2020. Such rapid stockpiling may conjure fears of excessive inventory accumulation typically observed during downturns in consumer demand. One might speculate if this growth signals a lack of sales or possibly a foreseen surge in demand, prompting preemptive stocking.
An analysis of Zhongwei's financial performance, however, reveals a contrasting scenario. Rather than dwindling sales figures, the company has continually expanded its revenue from 1.9 billion in 2019 to over 6.2 billion in 2023, charting a remarkable 300% increase. Net profits have similarly exploded from 189 million in 2019 to 1.786 billion in 2023, signifying a 75% compound annual growth rate. Projections for 2024 suggest a continued upward trajectory, with expected revenues around 9.065 billion, indicating growth despite the simultaneous increase in inventory.
Another indicator of Zhongwei's robust health lies in its gross profit margin, which consistently improved from 2019 to 2023, revealing sustained profitability. Although a slight decrease was observed in early 2024, the margin has maintained a solid 40% level, reflecting stability amid increased inventory levels. This dynamic indicates that the inventory rise doesn't stem from unsold products but rather from a growing production pipeline fueled by healthy order demand.
The classification of Zhongwei's inventory supports this perspective as products categorized as "in production" and "goods delivered but not yet recognized as revenue" show notable increases. This demonstrates the company’s healthy order backlog and proactive approach to meeting future demand, with estimates of new orders in 2024 expected to reach between 11-13 billion. This solid order influx showcases Zhongwei's confidence in demand expectations.
Several factors underpin this optimistic outlook for the future. Rapid domestic replacements for imported semiconductor technologies have accelerated across various sectors. Recent reports indicate that Chinese mainland investments in wafer fabrication equipment are predicted to exceed $30 billion annually over the next four years. Etching and thin-film deposition equipment are poised to benefit significantly as the semiconductor landscape matures.
Moreover, Zhongwei is crafting its course in the thin-film deposition technology realm, seeking to create a second growth curve following its existing success in etching. Currently, the company is developing over 20 thin-film deposition products, with plans to deliver over ten new products by 2025. As these innovations hit the market, they are expected to further boost order volumes, cementing Zhongwei’s position as a decisive force in the semiconductor industry.
In conclusion, Zhongwei finds itself in a virtuous cycle driven by strong downstream demand. Its abundant order volume and growing profits translate into increased capital for further investment in research, propelling technological enhancements at a rapid pace. As this momentum continues, it heralds a promising future that could dramatically transform the semiconductor landscape, delivering substantial growth and opportunity.
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